Application of Kalman Filter on Modelling Interest Rates

Abstract

This study aims to test the feasibility of using a data set of 90-day bank bill forward rates from the Australian market to predict spot interest rates. To achieve this goal I utilized the application of Kalman lter in a state space model with time-varying state variable. It is documented that in the case of short-term interest rates,the state space model yields robust predictive power. In addition, this predictive power of implied forward rate is heavily impacted by the existence of a time-varying
risk premium in the term structure